Topic / Subject

A viral fan claim says “analysts predict” ARC Raiders will drop 30% in players after Bungie’s Marathon launches — but the post doesn’t clearly name the analysts or the methodology.

TL;DR

The “30% drop” claim is viral, but the analyst sourcing is unclear. Treat it as speculation until there’s a named report or real post-launch data.

Key Details

Product: ARC Raiders

What’s leaked/rumored: “30% player count drop after Marathon launches” forecast spreading via fan accounts

Leak source type (filing/benchmark/supply chain/leaker/etc.): Unverified social claim packaged as an “analyst” prediction

The ARCRaidersIntel post pushes the “30% drop” claim as an analyst forecast. Marathon’s launch date is confirmed in mainstream coverage (context for why comparisons are trending). No official ARC Raiders statement endorses a specific “30% after Marathon” number in the viral post.

Breakdown

This is hype-war math dressed up as certainty. The reason it’s spreading is obvious: same genre, close timing, and everyone loves a clean percentage they can quote like it’s gospel.

But the missing piece is the most important one: who are the “analysts,” and what data are they using? Without that, “30%” is basically a vibes number — plausible-sounding, not provable.

Forbes adds a more grounded angle by treating the “30% window” as a discussion point around the competitive moment Marathon creates. That’s different than proving the exact percentage is real.

What We Know

A viral graphic claims “analysts predict” a 30% post-Marathon drop for ARC Raiders. Marathon is a competing extraction shooter with a confirmed release date in major coverage. The viral post itself doesn’t clearly document the analyst note or method.

What We Don’t Know

The identity of the analysts, data source, and forecast model. Whether the “30%” is a real note, an estimate, or pure fan extrapolation. What the actual post-launch retention picture will be (that can only be measured after release).

Is This Leak Credible?

What supports it: Competition can impact player counts, and Marathon’s launch is a real event.

What weakens it: The claim is unattributed in the social post and reads like a made-for-virality stat.

Confidence: Low

What It Would Mean

If a drop like that happened, it would signal ARC Raiders needs stronger seasonal hooks, faster balance/content cadence, or better onboarding to hold players during a major competitor launch.

What to Watch Next

Any named analyst report (real firm, real methodology) that matches the claim. ARC Raiders player-count trendlines after Marathon actually launches. Embark messaging or in-game events timed around the competitor window.

Sources

ARCRaidersIntel — Instagram post (claim graphic)

Forbes — A 30% ‘ARC Raiders’ playercount drop is a window for ‘Marathon’

The Verge — report (headline not provided)

Comment

When you see a clean “analysts predict X%” stat with no names attached, do you ignore it — or does it still shape your expectations?