Topic / Subject

A viral post says the memory crisis could last until 2036, but the checked reporting backs a severe shortage warning more than that exact year.

TL;DR

The shortage warning is real, and the tone from Phison’s side is serious. But the specific “2036” endpoint looks stretched beyond the better-supported reporting, which points more toward pressure lasting into 2030 or even 2035.

Key Details

• The Verge reported that Phison’s CEO agreed the RAM crunch could get bad in the second half of 2026.

• Tom’s Hardware reported that Phison CEO Khein-Seng Pua warned smaller consumer-electronics firms may fail and that smartphone production could fall by 100 to 250 million units.

• Tom’s Hardware also reported that at least one major foundry is demanding three years of cash prepayments upfront.

• Notebookcheck reported that Phison CEO Chien-Cheng Pan said RAM and NAND shortages could stay tight until 2030 or even 2035 at current production capacity.

• No checked source in this pass confirmed the exact “2036” date used in the viral post.

Breakdown

This is a classic tech-scare story where the broad warning is strong, but the viral image sharpens it into a cleaner and scarier number than the underlying reporting really provides. The good reason it is spreading is that the shortage concerns are not fake. Per The Verge and Tom’s Hardware, Phison’s leadership is sounding the alarm in a very serious way about memory pressure, supply constraints, and the damage smaller electronics companies could face.

That is already enough to make people nervous. Once you add the reported prepayment demands and the warning that smartphone output could fall by hundreds of millions of units, the picture starts looking ugly without any need for extra hype.

The issue is the year. Notebookcheck’s recap points to a possible crunch extending until 2030 or even 2035 at current production capacity. That supports the idea of a long-term squeeze. It does not cleanly support a “2036” claim, at least not from the sources provided here.

There is another simplification problem too. The viral post appears to blend RAM, NAND, and SSD pressure into one giant headline. That is understandable for social media, but it makes the underlying supply story look neater and more settled than it really is.

What We Know

• The Verge reported that Phison’s CEO agreed the RAM crunch could get bad in the second half of 2026

• Tom’s Hardware reported that smaller consumer-electronics firms could fail under shortage pressure

• Tom’s Hardware also reported warnings about major production disruption and three-year cash prepayments

• Notebookcheck reported that shortages could stay tight until 2030 or even 2035 at current capacity

• No checked source here confirmed the exact 2036 claim

What We Don’t Know

• Whether the shortage window will really stretch as long as the most extreme forecasts suggest

• How much capacity expansion could ease pressure before 2030

• Whether the worst-case scenarios will hit RAM, NAND, and SSD markets equally

What Would Confirm It

• More consistent reporting from multiple primary interviews or industry filings

• Manufacturer guidance that points to the same long-end timeline

• A direct quote or transcript supporting the exact 2036 year

Is This Leak Credible?

Source type: Viral social summary built on real industry warning signs.

What supports it: The Verge, Tom’s Hardware, and Notebookcheck all support the idea of a severe shortage risk tied to AI demand and supply bottlenecks.

What weakens it: The exact “2036” year is not clearly backed by the checked reporting, and the viral framing compresses several different memory issues into one neat panic line.

Confidence level: Medium on the severe shortage warning. Low on the exact 2036 endpoint.

Spec Sanity Check

A prolonged crunch into the early 2030s is at least being discussed in the reporting. A firm 2036 line looks more like social-media sharpening than a settled industry consensus.

What It Would Mean

If the long-end warning proves even partly right, memory supply could become a much bigger choke point for consumer electronics, data centers, smartphones, and AI infrastructure. Smaller firms would likely feel the pain first, especially if prepayment demands stay extreme.

What to Watch Next

• Whether other industry executives echo the same timeline

• Any evidence that new capacity plans are easing the bottleneck

• Whether shortage warnings start showing up in company guidance and pricing moves

Sources

The Verge — The RAM crunch could kill products and even entire companies, memory exec admits

Tom’s Hardware — Phison CEO thinks NAND shortages could shut down entire consumer electronics companies in 2026

Notebookcheck — Many consumer electronics companies may end up bankrupt this year due to AI-driven shortages, Phison CEO alerts

Comment

Do you think the market solves this with more capacity, or are we heading into a real multi-year memory squeeze?